India is set to expand its refining capacity to 300 million tons by 2030, fueling a major surge in diesel exports by 2027. We analyze the market shifts, state refiner capex, and complex indirect tax implications of this refining boom.
As Russian crude discounts narrow and Middle Eastern supplies stabilize, Indian refiners are shifting import volumes back to Gulf producers. This structural realignments carries significant implications for customs valuation, ocean freight GST, and non-creditable input tax costs across the refining sector.
Indian Oil Corporation plans to slightly reduce West Asian crude purchases under annual contracts amid Iran war disruptions. We evaluate supply shifts, shipping price surges, and the custom duty and tax compliance implications.